Flu forecast

Chances are, you’ve seen the flu shot reminders popping up at your local retail pharmacies and grocery stores. Although the season comes around once a year, the influenza virus itself is constantly changing. Shalika Katugaha, MD, system medical director of Infectious Diseases at Baptist Health, shared the flu forecast for the 2025-2026 season.

Flu season is here

Flu season occurs in the fall and winter in the United States, with activity typically starting as early as October and peaking between December and February. It can last as late as May. More specific timing of the season’s peak is difficult to predict and can vary in different parts of the country.

“Flu is among the deadliest vaccine-preventable diseases in the country,” said Dr. Katugaha. “Annual vaccination is recommended for everyone 6 months and older. Also, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends getting a flu shot before peak season. Make plans to get it now.”

Flu season predictions

Last year’s flu season hit hard, but experts say the 2025-2026 will likely be moderate to severe. It’s not common to see two severe seasons in a row, and the vaccine should offer the same level of protection as it has in recent years.

Experts look at flu activity in the southern hemisphere to predict what we may experience in the U.S. each year.

Data from Australia and South America indicate co-circulation of two strains of influenza A (H1N1 and H3N2). Both have caused substantial illness and health impacts. The U.S. vaccine for the 2025-2026 season has been updated to match these circulating strains.

In addition to the flu, people should also be vigilant about contracting COVID-19 and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), which also will be circulating this winter, said Dr. Katugaha. Experts predict around the same overall combined number of hospitalizations from flu, COVID-19 and RSV as last year.

Time to get a flu shot

“The influenza vaccine remains our best defense against the flu,” said Dr. Katugaha. “It not only helps prevent the flu, but also reduces the risk of severe illness and hospitalization for those who do get it.”

After getting the flu shot, your body starts building protection within a few days, and you’ll have full protection after about two weeks.

Because the flu virus changes each year, the composition of the vaccines is updated annually. For the 2025-2026 season, the flu vaccine components were updated in March 2025 to target the most prevalent strains. Every flu vaccine in the U.S. is "trivalent," offering protection from the three primary strains of influenza.

For adults ages 65 and older, the CDC recommends a special flu vaccine that’s higher than the standard dose. Studies suggest that, in this age group, high-dose vaccines are potentially more effective than the standard version.

“You'll want to double-check that your provider or pharmacy is giving you the vaccine specifically designed for people 65 and over,” said Dr. Katugaha.

While vaccination is recommended for all by the end of October each year, getting the shot after that can still provide protection during the peak of the season, reminded Dr. Katugaha.

“Fortunately, the shot is covered by most insurance plans and is available at low to no cost for those without insurance.”

Other tips to avoid getting the flu

In addition to getting your flu shot, Dr. Katugaha recommended a few steps to help prevent getting and spreading the flu:

• Use respiratory etiquette. Remember to cough and sneeze into your elbow, arm or a tissue.
• Wash your hands. Use soap and water, and do it often.
• Don’t touch your face. You can catch the flu by touching something with the virus on it, so avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth.
• Maintain your distance. Avoid close contact with those who have the flu.
• Stay home if you’re sick.

Sources: CDC: Key Facts about Season Flu Vaccine; CDC: Flu & People 65 years and Older